Hope For the Future: The 2021 Canadian Census
I am an editor for the journal Post Christendom Studies. In the most recent issue (https://mcmasterdivinity.ca/ccc/pcs-journal/#current-volume-post-christendom-studies-8-2023-2024) we asked a number of scholars to reflect on the 2021 Canadian census with a view to understanding the implications of religious trends in Canada on the church today. The 2021 Canadian census confirmed trends in religious habits that are now cemented into the Canadian identity. It offered a picture of the reality that Canadians are increasingly less inclined toward participating in structured religious activities and are less inclined to belief in God. While there may not have been any great surprises in the latest census data it depicts some sobering realities for anyone engaged in church leadership. The diverse group of scholars, from Canada and elsewhere, came up with a number of thoughts that have implications for ministry in Canada and North America today. Here is a sampling of them.
First, the census depicts a steep decline in overall participation in Church life and Christian faith. Here is a brief synopsis of the changes in some selected denominations between 2011 and 2021:
- Catholicism declined from 12,810,705 to 10,880,360. A drop of 1,930,345.
- The United Church saw a change from 2,007,610 to 1,214,185. A decline of 793,425.
- Anglicans experienced a drop from 1,631,845 to 1,134,315. An overall loss of 497,530.
- Baptists were at 635,840 and shifted to 436,940. A deficit of 198,900.
- Pentecostals stood at 478,705 but moved to 399,025. A reduction of 79,680 [1]
Despite the overall picture of decline that the census provides there was a prevailing hopefulness that the contributors offered. This was rooted in the need to see the contextual realities of the Western church as a condition rather than a problem. Problems are something to be solved but a condition can be something we learn to adapt to. It is something that must be worked with rather than solved. There is no hope in trying to reclaim long past cultural realities in terms of people’s relationship with Christianity. Instead, we must find constructive ways to work with what we’ve got.
A second, and related idea is that a whole generation of people have been raised in a culture that the 2021 Canadian census reflects. What I mean by this is that the trend toward decline in church attendance and participation in Church life which the Canadian census has depicted now for decades is entrenched enough by now that we can safely conclude that a generation (or even two) have been raised in a time when the only reality that they know is the growing obsolescence of the church in Canada. However, this does not mean that people are abandoning God but finding their spiritual desires are fulfilled in a way that no longer requires old structures. It could be that the church is in need of a conversion of its own. One that helps it see that is has much to learn from those who identify themselves as “nones” or “dones” and that by opening ourselves up to their experiences and insights we may find our own faith enriched and our ability to share our faith enhanced.
Third, and once again building on the previous point, perhaps this time of decline is somehow within God’s will and may be even his doing to cause the church to rediscover its true identity. Could it be that our overarching desire to reverse the downward slide is a sign that we have bought wholeheartedly into the narrative that numbers, abundant resources and societal influence are the marks of true success? Perhaps as in other historical epochs a time of immense cultural and religious change that seems to be a threat to the faith can become a time of renewal as the church is forced to reflect on its true identity and beliefs. This kind of reflection can provide a way forward to an even better future if it is done thoughtfully and courageously.
A fourth area of emphasis is the need for the church in Canada to figure out is how to better include, respect and work with new immigrants. It is these newcomers whose churches are currently the one overall source of church growth in most, if not all, Western countries. As the census points out, in Canada the majority of new immigrants identify as Christian. It is one thing to celebrate the fact that they start their own churches, it is quite another for the churches in their new homeland to welcome them and find ways to learn from them and incorporate their gifts and talents into the life and leadership of the local, regional and national life of the existing church. Of course there is a live question as to how the distinctives of Southern world Christianity is contextually amenable to the global North. But this is an issue to be explored rather than to be feared and it may also lead to some fresh discoveries about the church’s identity and how it can function as its best self.
These reflections invite us to be positive about the church in Canada today and to engage hopefully toward it’s flourishing in our, and subsequent generations. [2]
[1] Data from Statistics Canada, The National Household Survey 2011 and Census Profile, 2021 Census of the Population. For a more comprehensive breakdown see Murray, “The End is Nigh?” Post Christendom Studies Journal, vol.8 (2023-24), 9.
[2] This blog post is adapted from the article “The 2021 Census Panel: Reflection and Response.” Post Christendom Studies Journal 8 (2023-24), 93-96.
Rev. Dr. Lee Beach
Lee is the Associate Professor of Christian Ministry and Director of Ministry Formation at McMaster Divinity College in Hamilton, Ontario. He is the author of the book, The Church in Exile: Living in Hope after Christendom and co-author of the book, The Whole Gospel for the Whole World: Experiencing the Four-Fold Gospel Today.
